We are, quite literally and figuratively, driving a car into a storm. The road ahead is uncertain, visibility is compromised, and the terrain is shifting beneath our wheels. As the effects of the global climate crisis accelerate, decision-makers across all sectors—governments, development agencies, multilateral institutions, and private entities—find themselves at the wheel without a clear map. COP30 is a critical juncture in the road, where the world must chart a new path forward on climate change and revitalize the Paris Agreement to limit global warming, even as notable greenhouse gas emitters like the US withdraw. More immediately, the mid-year climate negotiations in Bonn and London Climate Action Week represent important signposts on our way to COP30, outlining the contours of the road ahead. The question remains whether leaders have the tools needed to chart this new path forward successfully.

In today’s context, the imperative is no longer whether to act, but how. Climate systems defy simple categorization. They are dynamic, context-dependent, and frequently unpredictable. The Cynefin framework, developed by David Snowden, offers a structured and pragmatic approach to understanding the nature of these systems, guiding decision-making accordingly. The framework distinguishes between four domains: Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic. Each domain necessitates a distinct response to the types of challenges it presents. This framework provides not only a diagnostic tool but can also function as a compass to help leaders design better responses to climate action. To better illustrate this, we can use the analogy we began with: driving a car.

Clear: Routine Driving

Consider the act of unlocking and starting a car. The process is repeatable, rule-based, and easily understood. In the Clear domain, cause-and-effect relationships are evident, and proven solutions can be applied with confidence.

In the context of climate action, this corresponds to interventions with well-established effectiveness and minimal ambiguity, such as installing solar panels, switching to LED lighting, or implementing basic energy efficiency measures. These interventions are widely understood and can be rapidly scaled. For example, widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies continues to deliver measurable reductions in emissions and increased energy security. However, many solutions to climate change challenges do not live in this domain.

Complicated: Urban Navigation

Now, imagine a scenario where the vehicle's engine warning light comes on. Diagnosing and resolving the issue requires technical expertise, tools, and experience. This is the realm of the Complicated domain, where cause and effect are known, but not immediately obvious.

Within climate, this section of the Cynefin framework could include designing cap-and-trade systems, developing national adaptation plans, or constructing resilient infrastructure. These efforts are technically demanding, involving multiple variables and specialized knowledge. Yet with appropriate analysis and planning, they can yield successful outcomes.

However, scaling such solutions globally introduces further complexity. For instance, implementing green infrastructure often necessitates coordination across ministries, sectors, and jurisdictions, and must account for entrenched interests and structural inequalities. Not all climate challenges can be solved with expert analysis alone. As conditions become more dynamic and unpredictable, we move from the domain of the Complicated into the Complex, where understanding must emerge through partnership and interaction rather than instruction.

Complex: Urban Traffic

To understand the Complex domain , imagine navigating dense traffic in an unfamiliar city. The environment is dynamic as drivers make unpredictable decisions, traffic lights change unexpectedly, and the path forward cannot be fully planned. In such systems, patterns emerge only through interaction, and successful navigation depends on flexibility and responsiveness.

Many climate interventions fall squarely into this category. Community-based adaptation, nature-based solutions, and climate finance mechanisms operate within social, political, and ecological systems that evolve rapidly and interact in unexpected ways. Progress in these domains is rarely linear. It relies on continuous learning, feedback loops, and deep local engagement.

Policy environments can also behave as complex systems. For example, the United States recently rolled back more than 100 environmental regulations under the Trump administration. These reversals [TL1] generated uncertainty for domestic and international stakeholders alike, undermining regulatory stability in global climate action.

Such volatility illustrates the defining characteristics of complex systems: delayed feedback, fragmented accountability, and high sensitivity to context. In this domain, prescriptive solutions are insufficient. Instead, leaders must invest in iterative processes and adaptive institutions that can respond to shifting conditions.

Chaotic: Emergency Conditions

Finally, as you are driving, consider a sudden sandstorm that obscures all visibility. There is no time to assess or strategize—immediate action is required to restore control. This describes the Chaotic domain, where relationships between cause and effect are unclear and decision-makers must prioritize stabilization above all else.

This mirrors the reality in regions experiencing climate-induced disasters. In recent years, the world has witnessed a surge in extreme events—floods, droughts, wildfires, and heatwaves—that demand urgent, life-saving responses. In Iraq, climate change has contributed to the collapse of agricultural livelihoods and increased displacement. In Sudan, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, historic floods in 2024 claimed thousands of lives and damaged critical infrastructure. In Argentina, flash floods in Bahía Blanca in March 2025 displaced hundreds of thousands.

These are not isolated events. They are signs of systems under extreme stress, where response must come before full understanding. In such contexts, the priority shifts from long-term planning to immediate intervention and stabilization, with a view to creating space for more deliberate responses once order is restored.

All Four Domains on the Same Road

As climate change affects every aspect of our world, it is not confined to a singular domain. Rather, it simultaneously manifests across clear, complicated, complex, and chaotic systems. Climate change is not a siloed environmental issue—it is a fundamental threat to governance, equity, economic stability, and peace. It intersects with nearly every Sustainable Development Goal and demands leadership that can embrace complexity and act amid uncertainty. This multiplicity is precisely why conventional approaches often fall short. Applying linear solutions to non-linear problems risks inefficiency at best, and catastrophic failure at worst.

The tools of yesterday’s development paradigms are not enough. As the international community convenes for the critical climate negotiations of COP30, the Cynefin framework provides a compelling way to recalibrate strategy. It helps leaders ask the right questions: What kind of system are we dealing with? and What type of response is appropriate?

Strategic Imperative: Applying the Cynefin Lens

GHV advocates for the integration of systems thinking, specifically in climate policy design, program implementation, and risk management. Doing so will enhance strategic clarity, enable more effective resource allocation, and improve outcomes across diverse geographies and governance environments.

Tailored responses informed by system type can transform our collective ability to address the climate crisis. In clear contexts, we must scale known solutions. In complicated settings, we must deploy expertise. In complex systems, we must adapt and learn. And in chaotic environments, we must act decisively to protect lives and livelihoods most impacted by climate change.

Effective navigation depends on knowing the road we are on. By embracing this lens, stakeholders across sectors can move from generic solutions to more nuanced, contextualized, and ultimately more impactful climate action. While we’ve used the car analogy throughout this piece, the reality is that the global response to climate change is more like a bus, and we’re all in it together.